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KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
93%
WN2
92%
AIFS
67%
ICON
52%
HRES
22%
Consensus
74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 57.3¢Risks 57.30u
VS
HRESNO 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.70u · HRES −42.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T04:30:16+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 76.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00AIFS Single: 74.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00AIFS Single: 66.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 66.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 89.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 92.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 91.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T04:30:16+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 21.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T04:30:16+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00ICON: 51.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:16+00:0076.0%89.4%86.3%23.9%58.4%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:0076.0%89.4%86.8%23.9%58.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0076.0%89.4%86.8%23.9%58.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0076.0%89.4%86.8%23.9%58.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:0074.3%89.4%86.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0074.3%89.4%86.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0074.3%89.4%86.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0074.3%89.4%86.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:0074.3%89.4%86.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0074.3%92.8%91.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:0074.3%92.8%91.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:0074.3%92.8%91.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:0066.8%92.8%91.8%21.8%51.6%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0066.9%92.8%91.9%21.8%51.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble93%65.6°F2.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 292%66.7°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend67%63.0°F3.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
AIFS Single67%63.5°F4.6°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%62.0°F4.5°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
ICON52%61.7°F4.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES22%57.6°F5.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗