KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

67%

52%

22%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 57.3¢Risks 57.30u

HRESNO 42.7¢Risks 42.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +42.70u · HRES −42.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	95.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	96.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.8%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	34.6%	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	73.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	85.7%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	86.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	96.6%	—	29.6%	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	85.9%	—	21.7%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	54.7%	60.7%	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	28.1%	91.5%	59.1%	—	62.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	44.9%	62.3%	70.3%	—	41.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.7%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	46.9%	28.3%	73.6%	38.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	76.5%	—	—	25.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	39.0%	72.6%	61.0%	—	26.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	31.2%	45.1%	—	—	21.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	38.5%	72.1%	44.2%	—	19.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	35.8%	62.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.2%	37.1%	62.1%	34.6%	—	13.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	37.6%	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	33.0%	49.1%	10.2%	—	8.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	32.6%	50.9%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	41.3%	47.1%	17.7%	38.5%	10.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	51.0%	—	—	9.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	93%	65.6°F	2.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	63.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	67%	63.5°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
ICON	52%	61.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	22%	57.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗