KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

65%

52%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

HRESNO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.15u · HRES −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:27+00:00	53.2%	77.1%	76.7%	9.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	53.2%	70.4%	76.7%	9.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	53.2%	70.4%	76.7%	9.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	53.2%	70.4%	73.7%	9.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	53.2%	70.4%	73.7%	9.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	53.2%	70.4%	73.7%	9.5%	45.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	73.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	73.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	73.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	73.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	73.7%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	61.1%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	61.9%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	61.9%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	61.9%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	61.9%	70.4%	72.8%	14.6%	45.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	80.5%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	80.5%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	80.5%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	63.7%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	63.7%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	50.0%	78.2%	63.7%	11.9%	35.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	63.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	63.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	63.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	63.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	63.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	49.1%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	51.7%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	51.7%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	51.7%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	51.7%	78.2%	64.7%	7.5%	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	65.6°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	63.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	61.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	56.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗