KPHL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 04:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

65%

52%

33%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

HRESNO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.15u · HRES −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	92.5%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	93.6%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	88.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	92.2%	—	—	—	—	66.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	95.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	78.3%	—	51.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.5%	—	24.5%	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	62.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	19.8%	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	53.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	77.4%	—	13.4%	—	—	53.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	83.7%	41.3%	47.3%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	17.5%	84.7%	45.1%	—	48.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	71.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	31.0%	47.8%	56.6%	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	46.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.3%	16.9%	59.8%	24.5%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	63.0%	—	—	14.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	24.8%	57.9%	45.2%	—	14.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.7%	18.4%	29.7%	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	23.8%	56.6%	28.6%	—	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	21.4%	45.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	22.1%	44.8%	20.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	22.2%	45.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	18.4%	31.4%	4.1%	—	3.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	17.7%	32.6%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	24.0%	28.7%	7.9%	21.8%	4.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	31.7%	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	15.7%	31.2%	7.1%	—	3.0%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	16.9%	26.2%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	18.3%	—	5.0%	—	4.7%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	16.1%	27.6%	1.8%	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	34.1%	—	4.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	78%	65.6°F	2.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	64.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	63.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	33%	61.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	56.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗