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KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
94%
AIFS
94%
ICON
69%
EPS
59%
HRES
28%
Consensus
78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u
VS
HRESNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.10u · HRES −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00AIFS Single: 91.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00AIFS Single: 93.5% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00AIFS Single: 93.6% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 58.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.5% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 85.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 94.0% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 38.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00IFS HRES: 27.9% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00IFS HRES: 27.8% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 72.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00ICON: 68.8% · 2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00ICON: 68.9% · 2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 09:4910-19 14:27
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:17+00:0083.6%58.1%88.5%38.1%72.6%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:0083.6%58.1%85.3%38.1%72.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0083.6%58.1%85.3%38.1%72.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0083.6%58.1%85.3%38.1%72.6%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:0091.2%58.1%85.3%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0091.2%58.1%85.3%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0091.2%58.1%85.3%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0091.2%58.1%85.3%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:0091.2%58.1%85.3%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0091.2%59.0%94.0%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:0091.2%59.0%94.0%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:0091.2%59.0%94.0%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:0093.5%59.0%94.0%27.9%68.8%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:0093.6%59.0%94.0%27.8%68.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 294%65.9°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single94%67.0°F4.9°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend86%63.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON69%62.5°F6.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble59%60.3°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast54%60.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS HRES28%56.1°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗