KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 19 · 14:27 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

94%

69%

59%

28%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.9¢Risks 60.90u

HRESNO 39.1¢Risks 39.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.10u · HRES −39.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	96.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	97.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	—	—	—	79.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	73.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	30.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	75.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	65.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	94.5%	—	—	—	—	70.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	89.8%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	—	—	—	65.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	74.8%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	21.8%	72.4%	—	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	82.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.3%	16.6%	87.0%	32.3%	—	36.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	64.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	37.1%	77.4%	62.3%	—	32.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	54.6%	78.4%	68.4%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	60.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	52.4%	66.3%	22.4%	—	35.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	80.5%	10.6%	66.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	52.5%	72.1%	27.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.3%	60.2%	71.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	68.6%	73.1%	38.8%	75.9%	44.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	73.6%	—	—	50.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	94%	65.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	94%	67.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
National Blend	86%	63.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	69%	62.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	60.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	56.1°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 60°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗