KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

65%

49%

44%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.45u · HRES −32.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:55:27+00:00	81.3%	43.6%	63.4%	15.1%	49.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	81.3%	37.9%	63.4%	15.1%	49.4%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	81.3%	37.9%	63.4%	15.1%	49.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	81.3%	37.9%	69.6%	15.1%	49.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	81.3%	37.9%	69.6%	15.1%	49.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	81.3%	37.9%	69.6%	15.1%	49.4%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	69.6%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	69.6%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	69.6%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	69.6%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	69.6%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	75.3%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	72.9%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	72.9%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	72.9%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	72.9%	37.9%	78.0%	27.2%	62.6%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	86.7%	36.6%	85.8%	17.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	86.7%	36.6%	85.8%	17.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	86.7%	36.6%	85.8%	17.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	86.7%	36.6%	87.4%	17.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	86.7%	36.6%	87.4%	17.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	86.7%	36.6%	87.4%	17.5%	56.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	87.4%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	87.4%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	87.4%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	87.4%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	87.4%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:23+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	86.3%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	88.8%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	56.5%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	89.7%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	65.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	89.7%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	65.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:14+00:00	89.7%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	65.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	89.7%	36.6%	88.8%	30.8%	65.2%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00	89.7%	48.8%	91.5%	43.6%	65.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	89.7%	48.8%	91.5%	43.6%	65.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	89.7%	48.8%	91.5%	43.6%	65.2%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	89.7%	48.8%	91.5%	43.6%	65.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	67.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	61.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	60.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗