KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST76%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

65%

49%

44%

Consensus

76%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 67.5¢Risks 67.55u

HRESNO 32.5¢Risks 32.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +32.45u · HRES −32.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	95.0%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	81.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	85.8%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	—	—	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	55.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	90.5%	—	—	—	—	59.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	53.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	63.4%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	47.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	13.2%	60.0%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	9.3%	78.1%	20.9%	—	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	34.3%	24.3%	65.0%	47.8%	—	20.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	39.4%	65.6%	53.8%	—	29.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	47.7%	—	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	36.7%	50.8%	12.3%	—	21.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	4.9%	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	36.1%	56.6%	15.2%	—	18.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	71.9%	43.2%	55.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	51.7%	57.0%	23.4%	60.4%	28.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	57.1%	—	—	32.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	90%	67.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	85%	65.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	65%	63.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	49%	61.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	44%	60.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 62°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗