WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
74%
EPS
60%
ICON
31%
HRES
13%
AIFS
12%
Consensus
39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u
VS
AIFSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.90u · AIFS −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00AIFS Single: 12.2% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 59.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 74.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00IFS HRES: 12.6% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00ICON: 30.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0010-17 07:4310-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:0012.2%59.9%74.0%12.6%30.8%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:0012.2%59.9%74.0%12.6%30.8%
2026-10-17T09:16:22+00:0012.2%59.9%74.0%12.6%30.8%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:0012.2%59.9%74.0%12.6%30.8%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:0012.2%59.9%74.0%12.6%30.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 274%68.0°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble60%65.6°F4.4°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend54%65.0°F5.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON31%59.5°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES13%57.1°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single12%57.8°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗