KPHL / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

74%

60%

31%

13%

12%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

AIFSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.90u · AIFS −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	—	—	—	47.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	70.0%	—	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.9%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	44.2%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	28.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	5.2%	40.0%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	53.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	3.2%	59.7%	9.0%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	30.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	10.6%	43.4%	27.2%	—	8.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	20.0%	43.2%	31.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	24.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	36.7%	17.4%	28.1%	3.9%	—	8.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	1.2%	27.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	16.2%	32.2%	4.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	20.8%	30.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	26.9%	31.4%	8.3%	34.6%	10.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	31.0%	—	—	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	74%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	60%	65.6°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	31%	59.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	57.1°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	12%	57.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261024-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 17 · 07:43 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 65°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗