KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

74%

49%

26%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

EPSNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.75u · EPS −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T11:02:32+00:00	83.5%	30.9%	70.1%	37.2%	33.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:10+00:00	83.5%	30.9%	70.1%	37.2%	33.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	83.5%	30.9%	70.1%	37.2%	33.3%
2026-10-18T13:18:59+00:00	83.5%	30.9%	70.1%	37.2%	33.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	85.2%	30.9%	70.1%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T14:55:28+00:00	85.2%	30.9%	70.1%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:24+00:00	85.2%	26.4%	70.1%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T16:26:44+00:00	85.2%	26.4%	70.1%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	85.2%	26.4%	80.5%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	85.2%	26.4%	80.5%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	85.2%	26.4%	80.5%	37.2%	33.0%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	80.5%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	80.5%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	80.5%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	80.5%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	80.5%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	89.8%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	90.1%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	90.1%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	90.1%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	90.1%	26.4%	83.1%	49.4%	73.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	69.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	70.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	64.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	62.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 65°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗