KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 65°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

83%

74%

49%

26%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 58.2¢Risks 58.25u

EPSNO 41.8¢Risks 41.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +41.75u · EPS −41.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	90.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	89.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	97.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	90.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	42.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	13.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	14.3%	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	6.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	53.2%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	6.4%	41.3%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	37.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	62.4%	52.8%	14.1%	—	36.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	77.5%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.2%	41.3%	34.3%	12.0%	—	33.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	59.8%	38.0%	30.3%	—	30.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	40.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	61.8%	54.0%	35.2%	52.4%	39.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	—	52.4%	—	—	43.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	54.2%	52.5%	25.1%	—	42.5%
2026-10-20T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	64.2%	52.6%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-21T00:00:00+00:00	63.7%	58.7%	—	30.7%	—	40.5%
2026-10-21T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	58.0%	44.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-21T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	46.3%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	71.9°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	69.4°F	5.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	74%	70.9°F	10.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	65.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	64.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	62.1°F	3.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 65°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE65
Opened Oct 18 · 11:02 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 65°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗