KPHL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

17%

12%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 10.2¢Risks 10.20u

EPSNO 89.8¢Risks 89.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +89.80u · EPS −89.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T08:00:48+00:00	22.2%	1.3%	12.5%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	22.2%	1.3%	12.5%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	22.2%	1.3%	12.5%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	22.2%	1.3%	12.5%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	13.7%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:14+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	13.7%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	24.3%	0.1%	13.7%	3.0%	7.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:52+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	13.7%	5.9%	35.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:04+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	13.7%	5.9%	35.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:13+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	13.7%	5.9%	35.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:22+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	13.7%	5.9%	35.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:30+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	13.7%	5.9%	35.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:03+00:00	31.9%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:27+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:51+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:18+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	15.9%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T05:16:52+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	13.2%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	13.2%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00	32.6%	0.1%	13.2%	5.9%	36.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	13.2%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	13.2%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	13.2%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	13.2%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	13.2%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	10.7%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	10.7%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	25.9%	0.1%	10.7%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	10.7%	9.4%	14.7%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	10.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	10.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	10.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	10.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	14.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	14.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	20.8%	0.1%	14.7%	9.3%	14.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	14.7%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	14.7%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	14.7%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	14.7%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	14.7%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	21.3%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00	23.5%	0.1%	15.2%	7.5%	23.7%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00	20.3%	0.1%	12.1%	6.2%	17.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	20.3%	0.1%	12.1%	6.2%	17.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	20.3%	0.1%	12.1%	6.2%	17.1%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	20.3%	0.1%	12.1%	6.2%	17.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	20.3%	0.1%	12.1%	6.1%	17.0%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	20.3%	0.1%	12.1%	6.1%	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	20%	70.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	17%	68.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	12%	69.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	65.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261025-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 08:00 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗