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KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
89%
WN2
87%
HRES
64%
EPS
24%
ICON
24%
Consensus
61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.55u
VS
ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.45u · ICON −43.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 89.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.1% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 63.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 23.9% · 2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:0010-19 07:3210-19 09:0410-19 10:34
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:0089.2%24.4%87.1%63.9%23.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0089.2%24.4%87.1%63.9%23.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:0089.2%24.4%87.1%63.9%23.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0089.2%24.4%87.1%63.9%23.9%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:0089.2%24.4%87.1%63.9%23.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single89%75.6°F5.8°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 287%74.7°F5.5°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
IFS HRES64%70.8°F6.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend56%69.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble24%65.8°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
ICON24%61.4°F10.0°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗