KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 19 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

87%

64%

24%

24%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.55u

ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.45u · ICON −43.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	96.8%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	54.2%	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	8.1%	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.4%	—	29.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	5.5%	—	—	41.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	80.6%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	74.6%	2.4%	43.3%	—	—	36.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	53.5%	24.1%	6.5%	—	34.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	72.4%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.6%	74.0%	50.7%	37.1%	45.6%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	63.9%	—	48.5%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	75.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	87%	74.7°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	70.8°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	69.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	65.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	24%	61.4°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗