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KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 13:09 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
82%
AIFS
78%
ICON
76%
HRES
49%
EPS
24%
Consensus
60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.10u
VS
EPSNO 46.9¢Risks 46.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.90u · EPS −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00AIFS Single: 77.6% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 16.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 24.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 80.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.1% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00IFS HRES: 45.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00IFS HRES: 49.4% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00ICON: 62.1% · 2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00ICON: 76.3% · 2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0010-20 04:5110-20 09:2210-20 13:09
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:51:06+00:0078.3%16.6%80.0%45.7%62.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:0078.3%16.6%76.0%45.7%62.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:0078.3%16.6%76.0%45.7%62.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:0078.3%16.6%76.0%45.7%62.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:0077.6%16.6%76.0%45.7%76.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:0077.6%16.6%76.0%45.7%76.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:0077.6%16.6%76.0%45.7%76.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:0077.6%16.6%76.0%45.7%76.3%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:0077.6%24.1%82.1%49.4%76.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:0077.6%24.1%82.1%49.4%76.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:0077.6%24.1%82.1%49.4%76.3%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:0077.6%24.1%82.1%49.4%76.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 282%74.8°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single78%74.6°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
ICON76%75.6°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%71.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
IFS HRES49%70.4°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble24%67.9°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗