KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST60%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

78%

76%

49%

24%

Consensus

60%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 53.1¢Risks 53.10u

EPSNO 46.9¢Risks 46.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +46.90u · EPS −46.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	42.2%	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	4.3%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	69.9%	—	2.7%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	62.6%	1.0%	30.6%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	26.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	39.6%	14.5%	3.1%	—	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	25.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	60.8%	36.4%	24.3%	31.7%	27.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	34.0%	—	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	78%	74.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	76%	75.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	49%	70.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	24%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 20 · 04:51 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗