KPHL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Philadelphia, PAHigh ≥ 74°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

62%

61%

58%

32%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.1¢Risks 34.05u

EPSNO 66.0¢Risks 65.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.95u · EPS −65.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:32:33+00:00	64.3%	2.4%	58.7%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00	64.3%	2.4%	58.7%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:26+00:00	64.3%	2.4%	58.7%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00	64.3%	2.4%	58.7%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:51+00:00	64.3%	2.4%	58.7%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:35+00:00	64.3%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:26+00:00	64.3%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:48+00:00	64.3%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T13:36:54+00:00	58.9%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.3%
2026-10-19T14:27:56+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:12+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:05+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:12+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	57.0%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:25+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	61.6%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:36+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	61.6%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:46+00:00	59.0%	3.2%	61.6%	33.8%	11.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:25+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	61.6%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:36+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	61.6%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:49+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	61.6%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-19T22:00:57+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	61.6%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:09+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	61.6%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:24+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T00:16:40+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:32+00:00	65.6%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:42+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T02:32:53+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:01+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T04:03:37+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:08+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	60.1%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:25+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:38+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:44+00:00	60.3%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	50.4%
2026-10-20T07:51:51+00:00	58.1%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:04+00:00	58.1%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:15+00:00	58.1%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:44+00:00	58.1%	3.2%	54.7%	28.3%	61.6%
2026-10-20T10:52:56+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	61.0%	31.9%	61.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:41+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	61.0%	31.9%	61.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:50+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	61.0%	31.9%	61.6%
2026-10-20T13:09:59+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	61.0%	31.9%	61.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:07+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	61.0%	31.9%	61.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:18+00:00	58.1%	6.5%	61.0%	31.9%	61.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	62%	75.6°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	74.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	58%	74.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	32%	70.4°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	6%	67.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 74°F · KPHL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHL-20261026-TMAX-GE74
Opened Oct 19 · 07:32 UTC

Original listing: Philadelphia runs hot-for-here: 74°F+ · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗