KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

15%

13%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 24.1¢Risks 24.05u

WN2NO 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +75.95u · WN2 −75.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T11:20:18+00:00	87.5%	65.7%	75.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:05:25+00:00	87.5%	65.7%	75.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T12:50:30+00:00	87.5%	65.7%	75.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T13:35:59+00:00	86.3%	65.7%	75.5%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T14:26:16+00:00	86.2%	65.7%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:12:15+00:00	86.2%	64.0%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T15:57:22+00:00	86.2%	64.0%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T16:42:29+00:00	86.2%	64.0%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T17:28:05+00:00	86.2%	64.0%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:13:15+00:00	86.2%	64.0%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T18:58:21+00:00	86.2%	64.0%	75.4%	41.3%	—
2026-10-11T19:43:36+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	75.4%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-11T20:28:43+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	75.4%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-11T21:13:56+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	75.4%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-11T21:59:03+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	75.4%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-11T22:44:17+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	75.4%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-11T23:29:39+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T00:14:48+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T01:00:17+00:00	72.3%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T01:45:25+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T02:30:33+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T03:15:41+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T04:02:10+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T04:47:17+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	67.9%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T05:32:24+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	74.1%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T06:17:31+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	74.1%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T07:02:37+00:00	74.6%	64.0%	74.1%	64.7%	52.8%
2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00	72.7%	64.0%	74.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00	72.7%	64.0%	74.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00	72.7%	64.0%	74.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00	72.7%	64.0%	74.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00	72.7%	64.0%	74.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:43+00:00	72.7%	64.0%	66.2%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:52+00:00	72.7%	44.2%	66.2%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T13:06:00+00:00	72.7%	44.2%	66.2%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:12+00:00	84.1%	44.2%	66.2%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:20+00:00	84.1%	44.3%	66.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:51+00:00	84.1%	44.3%	66.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:59+00:00	84.1%	41.2%	66.1%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:09+00:00	84.1%	41.2%	66.9%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:16+00:00	84.1%	41.2%	66.9%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:23+00:00	84.1%	41.2%	66.9%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:29+00:00	84.1%	41.2%	66.9%	63.7%	61.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:39+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	66.9%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T20:43:46+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	66.9%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T21:28:53+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	66.9%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:13:59+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	66.9%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T22:59:14+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-12T23:44:21+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-13T00:29:27+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.1%
2026-10-13T01:14:43+00:00	92.6%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:52+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:59+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:05+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:38+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	75.8%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:48+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	69.3%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:55+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	69.3%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:14+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	69.3%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:21+00:00	90.0%	41.2%	69.3%	79.0%	71.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:29+00:00	88.9%	41.2%	69.3%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T08:49:42+00:00	88.9%	41.2%	69.3%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T09:34:48+00:00	88.9%	41.2%	69.3%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T10:20:00+00:00	88.9%	41.2%	69.3%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	88.9%	63.3%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	88.9%	63.3%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	88.9%	63.3%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	88.9%	63.3%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	90.2%	63.3%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	60.6%	60.3%	53.4%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	60.6%	60.1%	53.4%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	53.4%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	53.4%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	53.4%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	45.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	45.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	45.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	60.1%	45.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	53.9%	41.9%	45.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	56.7%	41.8%	45.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	56.7%	41.8%	45.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	90.2%	59.0%	56.7%	41.8%	45.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	82.4%	59.0%	56.7%	41.8%	45.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	82.4%	59.0%	56.7%	41.8%	45.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	48.3%	37.9%	24.2%	2.9%	28.1%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	48.3%	37.9%	24.2%	2.9%	28.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	48.3%	37.9%	24.2%	2.9%	28.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	48.3%	37.9%	16.0%	2.9%	28.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	48.3%	37.9%	16.0%	2.9%	28.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	48.3%	37.9%	16.0%	2.9%	28.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	59.4%	37.9%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	59.4%	37.9%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	59.4%	37.9%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	59.4%	37.9%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	59.4%	37.9%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	59.4%	38.0%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	59.4%	38.0%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	59.4%	38.0%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	69.1%	38.0%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	69.1%	38.0%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	69.1%	38.0%	16.0%	2.4%	21.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	18.7%	65.6%	9.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	18.7%	65.6%	9.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	65.6%	9.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	65.6%	9.9%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	65.6%	9.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	65.6%	9.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	57.4%	43.0%	16.4%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	57.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	57.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	57.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	65.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	65.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	65.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	65.4%	43.1%	7.3%	32.7%	5.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	19.5%	44.6%	10.4%	81.7%	5.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	19.5%	44.6%	10.4%	81.7%	5.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	19.5%	44.6%	10.4%	81.7%	5.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	19.5%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	5.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	19.5%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	5.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	19.5%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	5.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	6.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	6.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	6.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	15.9%	81.7%	6.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	15.9%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	12.9%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	15.1%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	15.1%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	15.1%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	15.1%	44.6%	3.5%	12.6%	6.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2144
IFS Ensemble	45%	84.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1989
AIFS Single	15%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0228
IFS HRES	13%	80.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0159
ICON	6%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0036
WeatherNext 2	4%	79.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗