KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

45%

15%

13%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 24.1¢Risks 24.05u

WN2NO 76.0¢Risks 75.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +75.95u · WN2 −75.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	61.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	76.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	—	—	—	81.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	20.6%	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	73.6%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	55.2%	—	—	65.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.2%	—	40.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	64.2%	—	37.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	44.4%	25.2%	45.1%	0.6%	—	52.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	39.9%	47.8%	61.6%	—	55.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.4%	—	30.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	76.6%	53.0%	49.2%	74.9%	—	62.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	33.7%	15.9%	28.1%	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	24.5%	21.9%	39.3%	—	50.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	1.8%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	16.1%	27.7%	45.6%	—	30.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	14.0%	31.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	9.8%	29.7%	46.3%	—	36.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	10.8%	21.0%	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	7.9%	30.4%	63.4%	—	38.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	8.0%	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.3%	3.8%	9.0%	53.1%	—	47.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.5%	8.0%	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	7.3%	2.8%	29.2%	—	32.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	6.3%	4.8%	0.0%	—	18.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	6.5%	2.1%	86.0%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.0%	1.0%	42.8%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.0%	2.0%	65.8%	20.8%	4.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.0%	12.2%	65.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.2%	1.7%	50.0%	93.5%	11.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.0%	3.0%	41.7%	—	10.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.1%	12.2%	35.8%	77.8%	8.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	2.2%	15.3%	27.2%	—	4.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	0.2%	20.3%	12.5%	71.0%	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	4.1%	19.2%	28.1%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	46%	85.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.2144
IFS Ensemble	45%	84.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1989
AIFS Single	15%	81.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0228
IFS HRES	13%	80.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0159
ICON	6%	80.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0036
WeatherNext 2	4%	79.9°F	3.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0012

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 11 · 11:20 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗