KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

18%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

AIFSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.50u · AIFS −61.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:35:06+00:00	10.4%	2.0%	1.7%	61.8%	14.5%
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	10.4%	5.5%	7.3%	61.8%	14.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	10.4%	5.5%	7.3%	61.8%	14.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	10.4%	5.5%	7.3%	61.8%	14.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	4.5%	5.5%	7.3%	61.8%	14.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	4.5%	5.7%	7.3%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	4.5%	7.3%	7.3%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	4.5%	7.3%	7.3%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	4.5%	7.3%	7.3%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	4.5%	7.3%	12.4%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	4.5%	7.3%	12.4%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	4.5%	7.3%	12.4%	61.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	2.4%	7.3%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	2.4%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	12.4%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	4.0%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	4.0%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	1.3%	7.6%	4.0%	64.8%	19.8%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	1.8%	7.6%	4.0%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	1.8%	7.6%	4.0%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	1.8%	7.6%	4.0%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	1.8%	7.6%	4.0%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	1.8%	7.6%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	1.8%	7.6%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	1.8%	8.4%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	1.8%	8.4%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	2.0%	8.6%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	2.0%	8.6%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	6.9%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	1.4%	23.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	2.0%	8.2%	8.2%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	2.0%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	2.0%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	2.0%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:36+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	17.9%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	1.2%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	32.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	2.6%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	2.6%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	2.6%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	2.6%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	2.6%	8.6%	10.1%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	9.3%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	9.3%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	2.6%	5.7%	9.3%	9.0%	24.9%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	13.4%	5.7%	9.3%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	13.4%	5.8%	9.3%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T15:05:51+00:00	13.4%	4.7%	9.3%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	13.4%	4.7%	9.3%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	13.4%	4.7%	9.3%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	13.4%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	13.4%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	13.4%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.9%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	5.7%	0.2%	24.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	5.7%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	20.2%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	17.5%	4.7%	21.9%	21.0%	24.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:26+00:00	11.2%	4.7%	21.9%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	11.2%	4.7%	21.9%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	11.2%	4.7%	21.9%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	11.2%	4.7%	21.9%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	11.2%	4.7%	21.9%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	11.2%	18.5%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	11.2%	18.5%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	11.2%	18.5%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	7.5%	18.5%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	7.4%	19.0%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	7.4%	18.1%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	7.4%	18.1%	25.7%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	7.4%	18.1%	24.6%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	7.4%	18.1%	24.6%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	7.4%	18.1%	24.6%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	7.4%	18.1%	24.6%	26.8%	98.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	24.6%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	24.6%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	24.6%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	24.6%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	4.0%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	9.0%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	7.4%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	7.4%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	7.4%	10.3%	71.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	5.5%	18.1%	7.4%	10.3%	71.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	75.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5112
IFS Ensemble	18%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0328
National Blend	17%	84.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0276
IFS HRES	10%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0106
WeatherNext 2	7%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0055
AIFS Single	6%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0030
NWS forecast	2%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗