KPHX / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 77°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

18%

10%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 38.5¢Risks 38.50u

AIFSNO 61.5¢Risks 61.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +61.50u · AIFS −61.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	54.3%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	—	—	—	8.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	34.6%	—	—	1.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	2.9%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	7.5%	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	8.8%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	14.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	23.0%	9.9%	86.7%	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	15.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	11.3%	7.9%	3.9%	—	5.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	5.4%	6.5%	1.4%	—	3.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	11.9%	27.4%	15.4%	—	5.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	16.2%	18.4%	8.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	65.0%	8.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	22.1%	12.2%	5.0%	—	10.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	22.2%	23.5%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	28.9%	9.4%	3.9%	—	6.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	25.3%	13.7%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	29.6%	7.5%	1.1%	—	4.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	27.4%	10.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	38.8%	23.5%	1.6%	—	2.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	7.6%	23.6%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	23.0%	39.2%	5.0%	—	4.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.1%	27.6%	99.1%	—	8.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	20.7%	38.5%	0.0%	—	11.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.2%	96.9%	46.4%	1.3%	—	23.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	45.0%	97.0%	33.1%	0.2%	4.6%	19.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	80.0%	7.7%	0.1%	—	10.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	59.3%	28.4%	0.4%	0.0%	7.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	81.8%	18.2%	0.5%	—	6.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	64.2%	4.0%	0.5%	0.0%	6.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	15.3%	2.2%	0.8%	—	9.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.7%	36.1%	1.0%	2.2%	0.0%	11.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	5.8%	0.7%	0.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	72%	75.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.5112
IFS Ensemble	18%	81.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0328
National Blend	17%	84.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	0.0276
IFS HRES	10%	82.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	0.0106
WeatherNext 2	7%	81.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0055
AIFS Single	6%	83.8°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	0.0030
NWS forecast	2%	82.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	0.0003

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261018-TMAX-LE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 77°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗