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KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
76%
HRES
74%
EPS
74%
AIFS
73%
ICON
10%
Consensus
67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u
VS
ICONNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.90u · ICON −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00AIFS Single: 72.8% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.3% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00IFS HRES: 74.1% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:00ICON: 9.9% · 2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0010-12 07:4910-12 09:1910-12 10:50
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T07:49:14+00:0072.8%74.1%76.3%74.1%9.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:35+00:0072.8%74.1%76.3%74.1%9.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:40+00:0072.8%74.1%76.3%74.1%9.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:02+00:0072.8%74.1%76.3%74.1%9.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:14+00:0072.8%74.1%76.3%74.1%9.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 276%91.3°F5.3°F2026-10-11 18:00Pending
IFS HRES74%91.6°F6.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble74%89.7°F3.4°F2026-10-11 00:00Pending
AIFS Single73%90.9°F5.6°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
National Blend56%88.0°F3.3°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
ICON10%74.8°F9.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 88°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗