KPHX / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST67%Oct 12 · 10:50 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

74%

74%

73%

10%

Consensus

67%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 43.1¢Risks 43.10u

ICONNO 56.9¢Risks 56.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +56.90u · ICON −56.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	—	—	—	79.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	59.9%	—	—	—	—	74.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	69.0%	—	43.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	—	—	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	19.8%	—	—	62.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	54.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	0.2%	54.7%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	53.4%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	62.4%	59.1%	15.3%	—	72.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	62.0%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	48.5%	31.0%	55.8%	—	65.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	62.7%	42.4%	63.5%	38.0%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	63.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	28.8%	60.3%	40.5%	—	49.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	29.3%	45.8%	47.5%	—	55.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.0%	0.0%	36.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	0.3%	18.4%	61.3%	—	51.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	2.5%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	1.3%	29.7%	65.3%	—	48.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	2.1%	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	4.0%	13.6%	52.9%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.1%	0.9%	18.3%	—	—	34.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	5.5%	12.3%	54.1%	—	38.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	1.5%	12.7%	—	—	36.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	0.5%	16.2%	43.5%	0.0%	42.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	2.7%	11.2%	0.1%	—	43.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	11.0%	16.0%	46.5%	30.0%	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	2.5%	12.6%	32.5%	—	35.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	8.9%	23.6%	27.6%	—	35.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	0.8%	17.4%	24.8%	—	36.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.7%	10.7%	8.4%	15.7%	74.9%	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	7.6%	17.3%	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	14.6%	13.8%	29.3%	50.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	76%	91.3°F	5.3°F	2026-10-11 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	91.6°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	74%	89.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	90.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	88.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	74.8°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261019-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 12 · 07:49 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 88°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗