KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

84%

81%

64%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

ICONNO 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.65u · ICON −19.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:29+00:00	82.7%	87.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:45+00:00	82.7%	87.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:52+00:00	82.7%	87.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	82.7%	87.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:06+00:00	83.6%	87.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:07+00:00	83.6%	85.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:59+00:00	83.6%	85.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:06+00:00	83.6%	85.3%	54.8%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:15+00:00	83.6%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	83.6%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	83.6%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	10.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:31+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	73.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:40+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	73.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:46+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	73.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:21+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	49.2%	73.6%	73.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:28+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	49.2%	70.4%	73.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:40+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	54.0%	70.4%	73.7%
2026-10-13T23:58:49+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	54.0%	70.4%	73.7%
2026-10-14T00:43:56+00:00	72.7%	85.3%	54.0%	70.4%	73.7%
2026-10-14T01:29:15+00:00	53.5%	85.3%	54.0%	70.4%	73.7%
2026-10-14T02:14:22+00:00	53.5%	85.3%	54.0%	70.4%	73.7%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	67.2%	67.2%	37.4%	30.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	67.2%	67.2%	37.4%	30.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	67.2%	67.2%	37.4%	30.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	67.2%	67.2%	44.9%	30.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	67.2%	67.2%	44.9%	30.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	67.2%	67.2%	44.9%	30.3%	64.9%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	44.9%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	44.9%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	44.9%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	44.9%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	44.9%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	45.7%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	45.7%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	78.2%	67.2%	45.7%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	82.3%	67.2%	45.7%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	82.3%	67.2%	45.7%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	82.3%	67.2%	45.7%	38.6%	65.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:23+00:00	95.4%	76.8%	72.4%	74.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	95.4%	76.8%	72.4%	74.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	95.4%	76.8%	78.8%	74.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	95.4%	76.8%	78.8%	74.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	95.4%	76.8%	78.8%	74.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	95.4%	76.8%	78.8%	74.2%	58.0%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	96.0%	76.8%	78.8%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	96.0%	76.8%	78.8%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	96.0%	76.8%	78.8%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	96.0%	76.8%	78.8%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	96.0%	76.8%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	77.1%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	87.6%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	87.6%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	87.6%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	96.4%	76.9%	87.6%	81.5%	61.9%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	87.6%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	87.6%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	87.6%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	96.0%	76.9%	87.6%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	96.0%	81.8%	84.1%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	96.0%	81.8%	84.1%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	96.0%	81.8%	84.1%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	96.0%	81.8%	84.1%	90.6%	64.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	96.4%	81.0%	84.1%	90.6%	64.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	93.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	91.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	89.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	89.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	87.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗