KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

91%

84%

81%

64%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 80.3¢Risks 80.35u

ICONNO 19.7¢Risks 19.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +19.65u · ICON −19.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	74.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	58.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	68.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	59.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.8%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	75.6%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	78.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	41.6%	—	—	71.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	74.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	0.2%	60.7%	—	—	60.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	62.4%	50.7%	14.5%	—	65.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	43.4%	31.7%	22.6%	—	58.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.9%	52.3%	28.3%	—	66.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	57.0%	—	62.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	10.4%	52.4%	68.4%	—	62.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	56.6%	12.9%	33.8%	58.3%	—	62.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	1.9%	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.4%	43.0%	43.9%	73.1%	—	46.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	59.8%	33.4%	50.9%	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	60.9%	46.3%	57.3%	77.0%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	48.1%	56.6%	—	—	64.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	77.5%	51.0%	56.8%	79.0%	—	68.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	78.9%	46.0%	53.0%	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	81.7%	55.1%	58.2%	83.7%	0.0%	77.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	83.7%	69.3%	64.5%	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	66.9%	64.9%	75.3%	—	76.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	46.6%	67.5%	1.4%	—	82.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	85.3%	40.8%	74.9%	81.0%	0.0%	82.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.3%	61.9%	75.6%	82.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.8%	70.2%	79.2%	84.1%	95.1%	88.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	90.2%	73.1%	81.8%	94.7%	—	88.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	91.1%	70.5%	88.0%	95.7%	96.8%	88.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	85.3%	92.4%	96.0%	—	86.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	84.6%	94.1%	85.4%	95.3%	94.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	90.8%	96.3%	—	95.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	92.9%	—	98.2%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	96%	93.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	91.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	89.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	89.7°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	78%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	64%	87.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	87.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 87°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗