KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

80%

72%

59%

19%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.55u · ICON −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:16+00:00	90.4%	62.9%	63.9%	79.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	90.4%	58.7%	63.9%	79.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	90.4%	58.7%	63.9%	79.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	90.4%	58.7%	53.9%	79.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	90.4%	58.7%	53.9%	79.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	90.4%	58.7%	53.9%	79.7%	42.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	53.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	53.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	53.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	53.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	53.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	91.2%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	93.7%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	93.7%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	93.7%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	93.7%	58.7%	71.9%	80.3%	19.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	94.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	92.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	90.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	89.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	19%	85.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗