KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 89°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST66%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

80%

72%

59%

19%

Consensus

66%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.5¢Risks 56.45u

ICONNO 43.5¢Risks 43.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.55u · ICON −43.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	73.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	65.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.2%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	46.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	47.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	51.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	64.7%	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	68.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	29.5%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	62.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	45.3%	0.1%	47.3%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	48.6%	36.9%	7.9%	—	51.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	29.7%	19.9%	13.2%	—	43.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	29.6%	37.2%	16.9%	—	51.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	4.9%	36.7%	53.2%	—	46.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	6.1%	20.1%	41.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	0.6%	30.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	26.9%	27.7%	57.0%	—	29.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	19.0%	33.4%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	28.9%	39.1%	60.9%	—	40.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	30.1%	37.9%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	32.1%	37.6%	62.4%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	27.4%	33.5%	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	65.1%	34.9%	37.8%	67.9%	0.0%	59.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	48.9%	43.7%	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	62.9%	45.6%	43.5%	55.5%	—	56.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	25.8%	45.5%	0.3%	—	64.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	20.7%	53.5%	61.5%	0.0%	63.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	38.1%	53.6%	63.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	46.3%	57.4%	64.6%	84.9%	72.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	48.7%	60.2%	83.4%	—	70.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	44.6%	69.3%	85.1%	88.0%	69.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	63.7%	76.8%	85.3%	—	65.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.5%	61.4%	79.8%	62.8%	82.8%	79.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	71.5%	84.7%	—	82.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	94%	94.7°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	92.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	72%	90.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	89.3°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	89.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	89.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	19%	85.4°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 89°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE89
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 89°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗