KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

65%

65%

48%

16%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

ICONNO 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.90u · ICON −50.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	85.0%	37.1%	47.4%	64.3%	7.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	85.0%	37.1%	65.1%	64.3%	7.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	85.0%	37.1%	65.1%	64.3%	7.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	85.0%	37.1%	65.1%	64.3%	7.6%
2026-10-19T07:34:02+00:00	83.3%	37.1%	65.1%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	83.3%	37.1%	65.1%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	83.3%	37.1%	65.1%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	83.3%	37.1%	65.1%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	83.3%	37.1%	65.1%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	73.2%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	73.2%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	83.3%	48.9%	73.2%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	83.9%	48.9%	73.2%	66.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	83.9%	48.9%	73.2%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	73.2%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	73.2%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	73.2%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	66.7%	16.1%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	68.5%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	64.7%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	64.7%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	83.9%	47.7%	64.7%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	64.7%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	64.7%	64.7%	15.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	82.7%	47.7%	64.7%	64.7%	15.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	94.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	92.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	91.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	90.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	86.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 91°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗