KPHX / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

65%

65%

48%

16%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 49.1¢Risks 49.10u

ICONNO 50.9¢Risks 50.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +50.90u · ICON −50.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	59.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	54.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	45.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	39.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	52.5%	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	56.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	19.3%	—	—	46.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	—	49.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	32.4%	0.0%	34.2%	—	—	34.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	28.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	34.9%	24.6%	3.9%	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	18.4%	11.3%	6.9%	—	29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	22.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.2%	17.9%	23.9%	9.0%	—	36.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	2.0%	23.0%	37.5%	—	31.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	20.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	2.5%	10.4%	26.5%	—	30.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	17.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.9%	14.6%	15.1%	39.6%	—	16.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	9.2%	19.0%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.9%	15.4%	23.0%	42.7%	—	24.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	15.9%	21.7%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	17.1%	21.0%	43.2%	—	31.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	13.5%	17.7%	—	—	36.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	18.3%	20.4%	47.9%	0.0%	38.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	28.8%	24.5%	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	25.5%	23.8%	34.1%	—	35.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	11.2%	24.9%	0.0%	—	42.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	8.1%	31.0%	38.5%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	18.3%	30.4%	39.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	23.6%	33.1%	40.1%	65.8%	48.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	24.8%	34.9%	62.7%	—	46.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	21.0%	43.3%	64.4%	69.3%	43.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	36.3%	51.4%	63.7%	—	37.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	33.1%	54.3%	34.5%	58.6%	54.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	42.5%	60.5%	—	57.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	45.3%	—	69.7%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	83%	94.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	92.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	65%	91.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	91.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	90.3°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	86.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261020-TMAX-GE91
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 91°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗