KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

97%

79%

65%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.7¢Risks 81.70u

WN2NO 18.3¢Risks 18.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.30u · WN2 −18.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:06+00:00	21.2%	93.6%	53.2%	68.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	21.2%	93.6%	53.2%	68.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	21.2%	93.6%	53.2%	68.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	86.9%	93.6%	53.2%	68.8%	37.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	86.9%	93.6%	53.2%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	86.9%	93.1%	53.2%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	86.9%	93.1%	53.2%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	86.9%	93.1%	53.2%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	86.9%	93.1%	61.0%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	86.9%	93.1%	61.0%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	86.9%	93.1%	61.0%	68.8%	37.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	61.0%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	61.0%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	61.0%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	61.0%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	61.0%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	97.3%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	76.4%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	63.3%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	63.3%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	95.8%	93.1%	63.3%	78.0%	81.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	89.3%	93.1%	63.3%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	89.3%	93.1%	63.3%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	89.3%	93.1%	63.3%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	89.3%	93.1%	63.3%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	89.3%	93.1%	65.0%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	89.3%	93.1%	65.0%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	89.3%	98.4%	65.0%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	89.3%	98.4%	65.0%	97.9%	79.4%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	97.2%	98.4%	65.0%	97.9%	79.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	97.2%	98.4%	65.0%	97.9%	79.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	89.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	92.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	89.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	79%	85.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	81.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	82.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗