KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST90%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

97%

79%

65%

Consensus

90%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 81.7¢Risks 81.70u

WN2NO 18.3¢Risks 18.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +18.30u · WN2 −18.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—	90.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	93.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	85.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	96.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	—	—	—	—	96.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	95.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	87.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	85.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	70.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	70.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	46.5%	—	—	53.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	69.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	94.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	9.3%	95.2%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	87.4%	77.0%	85.5%	4.7%	—	91.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	34.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	65.7%	68.3%	95.4%	—	84.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.0%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	61.3%	52.3%	89.0%	59.8%	—	86.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	80.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.5%	96.2%	93.6%	97.3%	—	80.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.9%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	87.1%	85.2%	98.2%	—	83.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	49.1%	98.6%	—	—	30.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	71.6%	57.0%	99.1%	59.6%	—	95.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	93.5%	98.8%	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	85.6%	97.1%	97.8%	89.0%	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	94.1%	88.2%	96.2%	—	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.4%	34.8%	86.4%	97.3%	—	94.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	87.6%	17.7%	88.1%	—	—	92.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	73.2%	9.8%	91.4%	93.6%	—	92.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	90.4%	48.9%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.2%	55.5%	84.5%	91.9%	—	94.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	66.4%	79.4%	88.8%	72.4%	—	95.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	86.6%	82.5%	99.9%	22.4%	98.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	98.8%	89.8%	99.9%	—	97.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	92.5%	98.9%	99.7%	100.0%	99.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	98.9%	100.0%	—	98.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	89.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	98%	92.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	97%	89.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
ICON	79%	85.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	81.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	82.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 80°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗