KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

64%

54%

48%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

HRESNO 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.75u · HRES −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	93.8%	95.3%	48.3%	95.8%	70.4%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	93.8%	95.3%	48.3%	95.8%	70.4%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	93.8%	95.3%	65.8%	95.8%	70.4%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	93.8%	95.3%	65.8%	95.8%	70.4%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	93.8%	95.3%	65.8%	95.8%	70.4%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	93.8%	95.3%	65.8%	95.8%	70.4%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	65.8%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	65.8%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	65.8%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	65.8%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	76.5%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	64.2%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	55.2%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	60.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	37.4%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	37.4%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	37.4%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	37.4%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	37.4%	95.3%	67.4%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	37.4%	92.1%	53.9%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	37.4%	92.1%	53.9%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	37.4%	92.1%	53.9%	90.1%	94.5%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	30.0%	92.1%	53.9%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	30.0%	92.1%	53.9%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	53.9%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	53.9%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	53.9%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	94.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	84.5%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	84.5%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	84.5%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	93.4%	84.5%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	68.7%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	30.0%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	67.8%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	68.7%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	68.7%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	40.4%	92.7%	68.7%	58.9%	84.5%
2026-10-17T07:45:26+00:00	86.7%	92.7%	68.7%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	86.7%	92.7%	68.7%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	86.7%	92.7%	68.7%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	86.7%	92.7%	68.7%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	86.7%	92.7%	68.7%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	86.7%	98.2%	88.2%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	86.7%	98.2%	88.2%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	86.7%	98.2%	88.2%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	63.7%	98.2%	88.2%	48.4%	54.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	63.6%	98.1%	88.1%	48.4%	54.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	90.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	85.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	84.0°F	6.8°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	54%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	81.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗