KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

88%

64%

54%

48%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 73.2¢Risks 73.25u

HRESNO 26.8¢Risks 26.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +26.75u · HRES −26.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	89.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	88.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	93.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	91.3%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	92.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	80.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	—	—	—	59.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	35.1%	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	57.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	16.8%	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	3.1%	4.8%	90.7%	—	—	63.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.3%	—	46.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	78.6%	65.1%	75.9%	2.1%	—	85.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	22.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	51.5%	54.4%	90.7%	—	74.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.3%	—	68.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	37.2%	80.0%	44.7%	—	76.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	91.6%	86.9%	93.6%	—	67.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	91.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	76.2%	73.5%	95.3%	—	70.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	32.6%	96.2%	—	—	17.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	39.6%	97.2%	42.2%	—	88.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	85.5%	96.4%	—	—	91.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	92.4%	93.9%	77.7%	—	95.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	76.2%	90.4%	—	—	95.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	19.0%	72.9%	92.5%	—	86.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	7.6%	75.1%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	54.1%	3.5%	80.3%	84.3%	—	82.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	28.8%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	34.1%	67.9%	80.2%	—	85.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	60.0%	74.2%	51.1%	—	87.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.7%	70.0%	63.7%	99.4%	9.0%	93.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.4%	95.2%	74.7%	99.5%	—	92.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	79.2%	95.1%	98.3%	99.9%	97.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	95.1%	99.9%	—	94.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	90.4°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	85.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	64%	84.0°F	6.8°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	64%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
ICON	54%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	48%	81.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 15:34 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗