KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

61%

54%

24%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	86.2%	87.8%	36.4%	91.9%	78.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	86.2%	87.8%	46.8%	91.9%	78.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	86.2%	87.8%	46.8%	91.9%	78.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	86.2%	87.8%	46.8%	91.9%	78.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	86.2%	87.8%	46.8%	91.9%	78.8%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	78.0%	87.8%	46.8%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	78.0%	87.8%	46.8%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	78.0%	87.8%	46.8%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	78.0%	87.8%	46.8%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	78.0%	92.4%	36.1%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	78.0%	92.4%	36.1%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	78.0%	92.4%	36.1%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	78.0%	92.4%	36.1%	11.4%	4.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	76.6%	91.7%	36.1%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00	76.6%	91.7%	36.1%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	76.6%	91.1%	36.1%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	76.6%	91.1%	36.1%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	76.6%	91.1%	20.3%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	76.6%	91.1%	20.3%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	76.6%	91.1%	20.3%	11.3%	4.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	20.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	20.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	20.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	20.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	20.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	59.3%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	38.3%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	65.0%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	65.0%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	78.7%	91.1%	65.0%	42.9%	0.5%
2026-10-19T07:34:02+00:00	65.3%	91.1%	65.0%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	65.3%	91.1%	65.0%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	65.3%	91.1%	65.0%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	65.3%	91.1%	65.0%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	65.3%	91.1%	65.0%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	65.3%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	65.3%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	65.3%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	55.1%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	53.9%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	53.9%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	50.0%	95.3%	53.9%	69.6%	5.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	53.0%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	60.7%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	60.7%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	60.7%	95.3%	53.9%	87.9%	24.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	91.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	90.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	86.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	85.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	86.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	83.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗