KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 86°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

88%

61%

54%

24%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 59.7¢Risks 59.70u

ICONNO 40.3¢Risks 40.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +40.30u · ICON −40.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	80.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	82.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	16.6%	—	—	21.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	22.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	5.3%	—	—	17.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	71.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	1.0%	74.0%	—	—	37.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	53.5%	37.6%	50.0%	0.3%	—	63.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	6.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	24.3%	26.6%	72.2%	—	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	39.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	13.8%	53.0%	18.4%	—	47.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	71.9%	62.5%	76.4%	—	36.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	71.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	45.0%	41.7%	79.9%	—	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	9.5%	82.2%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	12.7%	84.9%	14.1%	—	62.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	56.3%	81.6%	—	—	67.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.3%	69.5%	73.4%	43.6%	—	76.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	40.6%	63.9%	—	—	78.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	3.2%	35.7%	67.8%	—	54.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	0.8%	37.2%	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	0.2%	42.8%	49.0%	—	45.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	5.2%	27.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	21.3%	6.6%	26.4%	40.3%	—	47.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	19.0%	31.5%	13.5%	—	51.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	26.0%	20.7%	91.0%	0.6%	64.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.0%	67.5%	29.3%	91.8%	—	58.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	14.4%	33.1%	65.8%	80.9%	97.4%	75.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	63.9%	95.4%	—	61.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	91.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	90.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	61%	86.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	86.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	54%	85.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	86.0°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	24%	83.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 86°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE86
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 86°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗