KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST25%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

55%

22%

22%

Consensus

25%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 37.5¢Risks 37.55u

ICONNO 62.5¢Risks 62.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.45u · ICON −62.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:35:09+00:00	0.5%	49.2%	8.5%	13.8%	9.0%
2026-10-14T11:21:07+00:00	0.5%	47.5%	2.7%	13.8%	9.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:17+00:00	0.5%	47.5%	2.7%	13.8%	9.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	0.5%	47.5%	2.7%	13.8%	9.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	25.5%	47.5%	2.7%	13.8%	9.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:54+00:00	25.5%	47.5%	2.8%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:51+00:00	25.5%	44.9%	2.8%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T15:58:00+00:00	25.5%	44.9%	2.8%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	25.5%	44.9%	2.8%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:17+00:00	25.5%	44.9%	4.3%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:24+00:00	25.5%	44.9%	4.3%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	25.5%	44.9%	4.3%	13.8%	9.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:43+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	4.3%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:53+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	4.3%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	4.3%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	4.3%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:13+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	4.3%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T00:15:28+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:14+00:00	55.7%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:24+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:40+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:44+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T04:48:13+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	10.1%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:24+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	4.9%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	4.9%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:44+00:00	47.9%	44.9%	4.9%	21.1%	45.2%
2026-10-15T07:50:43+00:00	27.0%	44.9%	4.9%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:54+00:00	27.0%	44.9%	4.9%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:49+00:00	27.0%	44.9%	4.9%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:44+00:00	27.0%	44.9%	4.9%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:53+00:00	27.0%	44.9%	4.0%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:45+00:00	27.0%	44.9%	4.0%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:59+00:00	27.0%	45.5%	4.0%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:42+00:00	27.0%	45.5%	4.0%	69.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:56+00:00	52.2%	45.5%	4.0%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:28+00:00	52.2%	45.5%	4.0%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:47+00:00	52.2%	44.6%	4.0%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:18+00:00	52.2%	44.6%	4.0%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:27+00:00	52.2%	44.6%	9.6%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:49+00:00	52.2%	44.6%	9.6%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:03+00:00	52.2%	44.6%	9.6%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:11+00:00	52.2%	44.6%	9.6%	69.7%	27.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:24+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	9.6%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:39+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	9.6%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:46+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	9.6%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:56+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	9.6%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:07+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:19+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	22.3%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:55+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:37+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:46+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T04:25:18+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	8.9%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:35+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:10+00:00	8.8%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	19.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:20+00:00	2.6%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	2.6%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T08:56:39+00:00	2.6%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	2.6%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T10:27:00+00:00	2.6%	44.6%	10.3%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:12:28+00:00	2.6%	34.1%	3.2%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T11:57:44+00:00	2.6%	34.1%	3.2%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	2.6%	34.1%	3.2%	53.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	1.6%	34.1%	3.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	1.6%	34.1%	3.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	3.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	3.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	3.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	60.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	54.8%	37.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	7.2%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	1.6%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T04:42:44+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	6.9%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T05:28:30+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	7.2%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:41+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	7.2%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	3.2%	35.8%	7.2%	12.3%	37.6%
2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00	26.3%	35.8%	7.2%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00	26.3%	35.8%	7.2%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00	26.3%	35.8%	7.2%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	26.3%	35.8%	7.2%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	26.3%	35.8%	7.2%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:20+00:00	26.3%	58.4%	16.7%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:30+00:00	26.3%	58.4%	16.7%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:38+00:00	26.3%	58.4%	16.7%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00	8.1%	58.4%	16.7%	5.1%	6.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00	8.2%	58.3%	16.7%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T15:25:24+00:00	8.2%	58.5%	16.7%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	8.2%	58.5%	16.7%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	8.2%	58.5%	7.4%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	8.2%	58.5%	7.4%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	8.2%	58.5%	7.4%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	8.2%	58.5%	7.4%	5.1%	6.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	41.4%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T04:15:04+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	7.8%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	12.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	12.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	12.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	58.6%	58.5%	12.4%	72.6%	49.2%
2026-10-18T08:02:00+00:00	43.5%	58.5%	12.4%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	43.5%	58.5%	12.4%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	43.5%	58.5%	12.4%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	43.5%	58.5%	12.4%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	43.5%	64.5%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	43.5%	64.5%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	43.5%	64.5%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	43.5%	64.5%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	41.7%	64.0%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:17+00:00	41.7%	64.0%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	41.7%	61.4%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	41.7%	61.4%	6.1%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	41.7%	61.4%	2.2%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	41.7%	61.4%	2.2%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	41.7%	61.4%	2.2%	1.8%	0.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	2.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	2.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	2.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	2.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	2.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	24.1%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:40+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	6.9%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	21.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	21.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	44.4%	61.4%	21.2%	14.1%	0.0%
2026-10-19T07:34:02+00:00	27.7%	61.4%	21.2%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	27.7%	61.4%	21.2%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	27.7%	61.4%	21.2%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	27.7%	61.4%	21.2%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	27.7%	61.4%	21.2%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	27.7%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	27.7%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	27.7%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	16.2%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	12.3%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	11.6%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	11.6%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	16.1%	68.4%	11.6%	32.2%	0.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	18.0%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:59+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	11.6%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:37+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:44+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	23.6%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:03+00:00	22.3%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:11+00:00	22.3%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:43+00:00	22.3%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:50+00:00	22.3%	68.4%	27.0%	57.7%	3.1%
2026-10-20T10:54:30+00:00	22.3%	72.0%	22.5%	55.4%	3.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:49+00:00	22.3%	72.0%	22.5%	55.4%	3.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:55+00:00	22.3%	72.0%	22.5%	55.4%	3.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	22.3%	72.0%	22.5%	55.4%	3.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:26+00:00	22.2%	72.0%	22.5%	55.4%	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	91.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	90.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	88.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	86.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	21%	87.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	3%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗