KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

73%

55%

22%

22%

Consensus

28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 38.0¢Risks 38.00u

ICONNO 62.0¢Risks 62.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +62.00u · ICON −62.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	19.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	5.9%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	1.2%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.1%	48.6%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	15.3%	24.1%	0.0%	—	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	1.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	7.6%	8.7%	44.2%	—	20.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	15.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.2%	3.2%	24.5%	4.8%	—	20.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	13.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	41.3%	31.6%	46.8%	—	12.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	40.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	16.8%	14.8%	50.0%	—	12.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.5%	52.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	2.2%	56.1%	2.5%	—	29.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	22.9%	50.0%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	33.9%	38.2%	13.9%	—	41.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	11.8%	27.6%	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	0.2%	9.0%	30.4%	—	19.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.0%	9.2%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.0%	11.3%	14.5%	—	12.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	0.4%	4.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.9%	0.5%	4.2%	9.0%	—	12.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.2%	5.4%	1.3%	—	13.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	2.4%	57.0%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	22.5%	4.0%	57.2%	—	16.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	4.6%	19.9%	35.4%	75.4%	28.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	17.4%	65.1%	—	15.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	73%	91.6°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	90.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	44%	89.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	38%	88.0°F	4.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	87.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	86.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	3%	82.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 14 · 10:35 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗