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KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
17%
ICON
13%
AIFS
8%
WN2
2%
EPS
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 8.5¢Risks 4.23u
VS
EPSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.77u · EPS −45.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T07:45:27+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T07:45:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T07:45:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.4% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:27+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00IFS HRES: 16.9% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:27+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 12.9% · 2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00ICON: 13.0% · 2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 13:4710-17 19:11
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:27+00:001.4%0.5%4.4%16.9%12.9%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:001.4%0.5%4.4%16.9%12.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:001.4%0.5%4.4%16.9%12.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:001.4%0.5%4.4%16.9%12.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:001.4%0.5%4.4%16.9%12.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:58+00:007.5%0.1%0.6%16.9%12.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:20+00:007.5%0.1%0.6%16.9%13.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:007.5%0.0%2.1%16.9%13.0%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:007.5%0.0%2.1%16.9%13.0%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:007.5%0.0%2.1%16.9%13.0%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:007.5%0.0%2.1%16.9%13.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES17%81.3°F5.0°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
National Blend13%84.0°F6.8°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON13%82.0°F4.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
AIFS Single8%83.1°F4.6°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
NWS forecast5%84.0°F4.5°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%84.1°F3.7°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble<1%90.4°F4.2°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗