KPHX / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≤ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 19:11 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.5¢Risks 4.23u

EPSNO 91.5¢Risks 45.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.77u · EPS −45.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	80.8%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	7.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	17.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	77.8%	—	36.2%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	27.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	85.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	79.8%	—	55.8%	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	84.5%	79.2%	1.5%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	10.2%	5.6%	87.4%	—	2.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	45.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	17.0%	15.2%	1.3%	—	5.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	26.4%	3.6%	20.5%	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	7.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	60.3%	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	—	7.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	68.5%	3.9%	4.7%	0.3%	—	5.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	26.7%	0.2%	—	—	44.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	20.2%	0.1%	18.4%	—	1.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	1.4%	0.2%	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	0.5%	0.3%	2.8%	—	0.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.9%	0.6%	—	—	0.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	36.6%	3.4%	0.4%	—	1.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	57.0%	2.7%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	69.7%	1.6%	1.1%	—	1.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	22.0%	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	16.9%	3.3%	1.3%	—	0.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	4.8%	1.9%	7.5%	—	0.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	2.4%	3.5%	0.0%	45.4%	0.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	0.1%	1.5%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	4.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	0.1%	0.0%	—	0.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	17%	81.3°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	84.0°F	6.8°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	13%	82.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	8%	83.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	84.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	84.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	90.4°F	4.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 76°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261021-TMAX-LE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 76°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗