KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

92%

88%

85%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 90.2¢Risks 45.12u

WN2NO 9.8¢Risks 4.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.88u · WN2 −4.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T15:25:24+00:00	79.6%	93.7%	93.1%	81.1%	90.2%
2026-10-17T16:10:35+00:00	79.6%	93.7%	93.1%	81.1%	90.2%
2026-10-17T16:55:44+00:00	79.6%	93.7%	83.5%	81.1%	90.2%
2026-10-17T17:40:53+00:00	79.6%	93.7%	83.5%	81.1%	90.2%
2026-10-17T18:26:00+00:00	79.6%	93.7%	83.5%	81.1%	90.2%
2026-10-17T19:11:07+00:00	79.6%	93.7%	83.5%	81.1%	90.2%
2026-10-17T19:56:22+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	83.5%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:34+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	83.5%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	83.5%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:57+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	83.5%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:07+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:16+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:58+00:00	92.1%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:17+00:00	95.3%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	95.3%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:32+00:00	95.3%	93.7%	85.2%	92.2%	88.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	85.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	88.1°F	6.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	85.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	88%	84.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗