KPHX / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST88%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

94%

92%

88%

85%

Consensus

88%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 90.2¢Risks 45.12u

WN2NO 9.8¢Risks 4.88u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +4.88u · WN2 −4.88u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	94.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	96.4%	—	—	—	—	96.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	95.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	97.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	95.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	96.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	88.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	71.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	72.5%	—	—	69.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	57.8%	—	—	90.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	20.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	7.5%	34.2%	—	—	72.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	21.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	6.9%	45.8%	1.2%	—	70.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	—	35.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	47.8%	78.5%	44.9%	—	60.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	81.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	94.0%	46.9%	47.7%	—	62.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	85.1%	82.6%	11.9%	—	86.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	46.7%	—	89.8%	—	—	91.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	70.0%	82.7%	96.1%	34.5%	—	93.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	25.3%	95.7%	—	—	88.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	72.4%	32.2%	93.8%	81.6%	—	65.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	71.3%	78.5%	97.6%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	66.1%	32.2%	96.8%	47.2%	—	60.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	39.7%	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.3%	76.0%	98.0%	50.0%	—	75.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	81.0%	98.6%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	68.8%	47.9%	99.3%	66.0%	—	77.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	60.5%	99.7%	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	69.9%	31.1%	99.4%	83.8%	4.5%	89.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	69.5%	—	99.7%	79.4%	—	74.2%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	99.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	95%	85.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	88.1°F	6.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	85.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	88%	84.7°F	6.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	81.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	59%	79.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261022-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 17 · 15:25 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 78°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗