KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

76%

74%

64%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.6¢Risks 75.55u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.45u · ICON −24.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:29:06+00:00	49.3%	68.0%	64.6%	30.9%	38.5%
2026-10-16T14:20:02+00:00	49.3%	68.0%	64.5%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:52+00:00	49.3%	70.0%	64.5%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	49.3%	70.2%	64.5%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:15+00:00	49.3%	70.2%	64.5%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:33+00:00	49.3%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:40+00:00	49.3%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:47+00:00	49.3%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	38.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:20+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	75.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:43+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	75.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:49+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	75.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:57+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	70.9%	31.0%	75.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	70.9%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:40+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	53.5%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:15+00:00	58.3%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:25+00:00	58.3%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:33+00:00	58.3%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:43+00:00	58.3%	70.2%	68.1%	63.3%	75.3%
2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00	74.7%	83.2%	65.8%	60.2%	62.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	74.7%	83.2%	68.1%	60.2%	62.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	74.7%	83.2%	68.1%	60.2%	62.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	74.7%	83.2%	68.1%	60.2%	62.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	74.7%	83.2%	68.1%	60.2%	62.1%
2026-10-18T08:02:02+00:00	79.6%	83.2%	68.1%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	79.6%	83.2%	68.1%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	79.6%	83.2%	68.1%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	79.6%	83.2%	68.1%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	79.6%	73.7%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	79.6%	73.7%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	79.6%	73.7%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	79.6%	73.7%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	85.3%	73.3%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T14:56:18+00:00	85.3%	73.3%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:41+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	77.5%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:12+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:42+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:50+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	44.5%	52.6%
2026-10-18T19:28:02+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:11+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:20+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:47+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:12+00:00	78.5%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:41+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:49+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:08+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:41+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	75.2%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:09+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	84.7%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:17+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	84.7%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:25+00:00	85.3%	71.1%	84.7%	59.6%	50.7%
2026-10-19T07:34:03+00:00	85.7%	71.1%	84.7%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T08:19:25+00:00	85.7%	71.1%	84.7%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	85.7%	71.1%	84.7%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	85.7%	71.1%	84.7%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T10:35:30+00:00	85.7%	71.1%	84.7%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00	85.7%	76.0%	86.4%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00	85.7%	76.0%	86.4%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	85.7%	76.0%	86.4%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00	83.1%	76.0%	86.4%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00	83.2%	76.0%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00	83.2%	75.5%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	83.2%	75.5%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	83.2%	75.5%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	83.2%	75.5%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00	83.2%	75.5%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00	83.2%	75.5%	86.5%	67.7%	63.6%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	86.5%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	86.5%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	86.5%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	86.5%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-19T22:46:18+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	86.5%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-19T23:31:32+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	82.0%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-20T00:17:12+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	82.0%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-20T01:02:41+00:00	82.6%	75.5%	82.0%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-20T01:47:52+00:00	86.7%	75.5%	82.0%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	86.7%	75.5%	82.0%	74.5%	64.4%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	86.7%	75.5%	82.0%	74.5%	64.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	81.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	79.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	81.2°F	6.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗