KPHX / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

82%

76%

74%

64%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 75.6¢Risks 75.55u

ICONNO 24.4¢Risks 24.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.45u · ICON −24.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	94.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	97.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	96.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	85.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	73.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	—	27.3%	—	—	76.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	—	—	—	90.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.2%	—	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	72.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	25.2%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	10.2%	26.0%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.6%	65.1%	59.1%	2.7%	—	50.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	35.0%	62.9%	37.8%	—	55.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	62.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	38.7%	63.5%	34.4%	—	59.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	70.1%	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.6%	32.3%	78.8%	44.4%	—	48.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	76.3%	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	29.3%	67.8%	51.7%	—	45.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	57.6%	7.5%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.2%	50.0%	82.2%	45.6%	—	60.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	65.8%	70.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	50.9%	73.4%	63.6%	—	58.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	49.0%	76.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	47.1%	74.5%	69.6%	13.6%	64.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	74.3%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	78.8%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	81.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	82%	79.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	81.2°F	6.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	79.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	64%	78.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	77.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 16 · 13:29 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 77°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗