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KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
89%
AIFS
81%
EPS
66%
HRES
50%
ICON
33%
Consensus
69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 60.8¢Risks 60.80u
VS
ICONNO 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.20u · ICON −39.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00AIFS Single: 80.8% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.1% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 88.7% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00IFS HRES: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00ICON: 32.9% · 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0010-17 07:4510-17 09:1610-17 10:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-17T07:45:28+00:0080.8%66.1%88.7%50.0%32.9%
2026-10-17T08:31:17+00:0080.8%66.1%88.7%50.0%32.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:46+00:0080.8%66.1%88.7%50.0%32.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:0080.8%66.1%88.7%50.0%32.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:0080.8%66.1%88.7%50.0%32.9%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 289%82.1°F5.5°F2026-10-16 18:00Pending
AIFS Single81%80.5°F5.8°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%77.7°F5.3°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend55%76.0°F4.4°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES50%75.5°F6.5°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
ICON33%71.1°F9.9°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 76°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗