KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

81%

66%

50%

33%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.8¢Risks 60.80u

ICONNO 39.2¢Risks 39.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +39.20u · ICON −39.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	96.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	93.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	93.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	90.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	81.4%	—	—	—	—	87.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	74.0%	—	—	—	—	82.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	66.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	82.9%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	—	43.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	—	—	—	88.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	79.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	81.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.2%	—	92.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	83.1%	—	—	—	—	75.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	55.8%	—	—	82.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	6.4%	75.6%	—	—	75.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	85.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.4%	73.1%	83.4%	25.2%	—	82.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	71.5%	62.3%	98.3%	51.5%	—	84.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.8%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	20.5%	89.0%	82.6%	—	77.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	73.2%	98.1%	50.8%	—	78.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	89.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	81.6%	93.4%	81.6%	—	68.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	64.2%	32.6%	97.7%	—	—	2.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	75.9%	79.8%	86.4%	59.6%	40.5%	75.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	72.9%	—	81.0%	—	—	74.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	89%	82.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	77.7°F	5.3°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	76.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	75.5°F	6.5°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	33%	71.1°F	9.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 17 · 07:45 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 76°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗