KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

73%

65%

63%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 76.00u

HRESNO 24.0¢Risks 24.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.00u · HRES −24.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00	82.2%	66.8%	82.1%	89.0%	76.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00	82.2%	66.8%	78.9%	89.0%	76.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00	82.2%	66.8%	78.9%	89.0%	76.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	82.2%	66.8%	78.9%	89.0%	76.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00	82.2%	66.8%	78.9%	89.0%	76.5%
2026-10-18T08:02:02+00:00	87.4%	66.8%	78.9%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T08:47:14+00:00	87.4%	66.8%	78.9%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	87.4%	66.8%	78.9%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00	87.4%	66.8%	78.9%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T11:03:03+00:00	87.4%	65.4%	85.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T11:48:20+00:00	87.4%	65.4%	85.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T12:33:58+00:00	87.4%	65.4%	85.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	87.4%	65.4%	85.2%	63.1%	73.1%
2026-10-18T14:04:16+00:00	88.9%	65.3%	85.3%	63.1%	73.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	83.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	81.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	80.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	78.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	78.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗