KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

85%

73%

65%

63%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 76.0¢Risks 76.00u

HRESNO 24.0¢Risks 24.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +24.00u · HRES −24.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	95.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	91.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	88.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.3%	—	38.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	—	—	—	—	85.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	—	—	—	77.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	89.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	79.0%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	76.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—	56.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	49.4%	—	—	77.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	4.5%	70.0%	—	—	70.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	57.7%	67.0%	78.6%	19.9%	—	77.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	86.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	65.0%	55.1%	97.3%	44.2%	—	79.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	95.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	15.5%	84.9%	77.2%	—	71.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	56.4%	66.3%	97.0%	42.9%	—	71.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	75.5%	90.3%	75.5%	—	60.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	25.3%	96.2%	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	68.6%	73.1%	81.0%	50.9%	32.2%	67.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.9%	—	74.3%	—	—	66.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	73.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	83.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	85%	81.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	73%	80.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	65%	78.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	63%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	63%	78.7°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	77.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: Phoenix high ≥ 77°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗