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KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 22:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
13%
EPS
5%
HRES
3%
AIFS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.4¢Risks 3.70u
VS
WN2NO 92.6¢Risks 46.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.30u · WN2 −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00AIFS Single: 9.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00AIFS Single: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.2% · 2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.7% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00IFS HRES: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00IFS HRES: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00IFS HRES: 21.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00IFS HRES: 4.0% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS HRES: 3.3% · 2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:00ICON: 28.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 9.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:00ICON: 8.9% · 2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00ICON: 12.6% · 2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:0010-18 04:1510-19 15:5910-19 22:46
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:15:06+00:009.0%4.2%5.2%21.5%28.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:009.0%4.2%4.1%21.5%28.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:23+00:009.0%4.2%4.1%21.5%28.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:009.0%4.2%4.1%21.5%28.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:24+00:005.3%5.4%1.7%4.1%9.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:42+00:005.3%5.4%1.7%4.1%9.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:005.3%5.4%1.7%4.1%9.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:08+00:003.8%5.4%1.7%4.1%9.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:07+00:003.7%5.4%1.7%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T15:14:01+00:003.7%5.1%1.7%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:003.7%5.1%1.7%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:003.7%5.1%1.7%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:003.7%5.1%2.2%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:43+00:003.7%5.1%2.2%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:23+00:003.7%5.1%2.2%4.0%8.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:34+00:002.4%5.1%2.2%3.3%12.6%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:002.4%5.1%2.2%3.3%12.6%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:002.4%5.1%2.2%3.3%12.6%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:002.4%5.1%2.2%3.3%12.6%
2026-10-19T22:46:19+00:002.4%5.1%2.2%3.3%12.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON13%82.5°F6.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%80.5°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%80.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS HRES3%78.9°F5.8°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%79.7°F4.9°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%81.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend<1%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗