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KPHX / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Phoenix, AZHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 19 · 22:46 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
13%
EPS
5%
HRES
3%
AIFS
2%
WN2
2%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 7.4¢Risks 3.70u
VS
WN2NO 92.6¢Risks 46.30u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +46.30u · WN2 −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.8% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.4% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.7% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 25.1% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.6% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.4% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 32.3% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.1% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 23.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 15.7% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.4% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 49.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 37.5% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 35.9% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.7% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.6% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-09 12:0010-15 00:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:000.1%————3.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.6%————49.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:001.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:007.7%————37.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:004.4%————36.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0011.0%—————
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:004.8%————35.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0020.4%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:003.3%————29.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.3%—————
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0016.5%————24.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0014.3%—————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:001.2%————16.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:004.5%—————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0010.9%————17.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:007.1%—————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0016.4%————14.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.9%—1.7%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:004.2%————20.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0011.2%—————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.9%————12.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:003.5%—25.1%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0012.1%————7.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:001.4%—10.0%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:001.3%————2.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:003.0%—2.2%———
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:003.4%—1.6%——8.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:003.8%—9.4%———
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:001.3%0.0%4.7%——4.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.1%—8.6%———
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:001.8%3.2%6.7%0.1%—6.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:001.7%—10.4%———
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:002.3%1.2%32.3%0.6%—5.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.4%—22.1%———
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%7.3%4.1%—2.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.7%—27.2%———
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.7%1.5%23.6%0.3%—2.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.4%—5.3%———
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.2%2.1%7.7%2.1%—0.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.4%0.0%15.7%——0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.9%1.2%2.4%0.2%0.1%0.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.5%—1.1%——0.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON13%82.5°F6.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%80.5°F5.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast3%80.0°F5.2°F2026-10-19 14:00Pending
IFS HRES3%78.9°F5.8°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
AIFS Single2%79.7°F4.9°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%81.2°F4.1°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
National Blend<1%79.0°F4.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KPHX

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KPHX-20261024-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 18 · 04:15 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Phoenix · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗